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Summary of Bank of Canada's Monetary Policy Report, October 2020
Nov 2, 2020 | Economic News and ForecastsThe Bank of Canada (BoC) issues a quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR), which we use as one of the inputs to our Economic Forecasts. In the April and July MPR, the Bank departed from its practice of including definitive economic forecasts, but returned to it in the October issue...
StatsCan Releases August GDP; Q3 Flash Estimate
Oct 30, 2020 | Economic News and ForecastsStatistics Canada today released August GDP figures, showing the economy grew 1.2% month over month - a much slower pace than the 3.1% revised growth in July. The news was not so rosy for non-residential construction, which contracted a further 1.7%, with all components...
Bank of Canada Rate Still Holding at 0.25%
Oct 28, 2020 | Economic News and ForecastsThe Bank of Canada today confirmed it is holding the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of 0.25%. In its release, the Bank indicated it would continue to maintain this rate until its target inflation rate of 2.0% is "sustainably achieved"; they estimate this will not happen...
July GDP Figures Released
Sep 30, 2020 | Economic News and ForecastsStatistics Canada released the July GDP figures today. With month-over-month growth of 3%, GDP growth is slowing down. This is the thrid consecutive monthly increase in GDP, but it still leaves the economy 6% below February's pre-COVID levels. Construction activity was up by 0.6%...
Canadian Bank Rate Remains Unchanged at 0.25%
Sep 10, 2020 | Economic News and ForecastsTo no one's surprise, the Bank of Canada announced yesterday it was maintaining the bank rate at the effective lower bound of 0.25%. In the press release, the Bank noted that recovery in the third quarter will probably be stronger than predicted in their July Monetary Policy Report...
Construction Investment and Building Permit Activity
Sep 3, 2020 | Economic News and ForecastsLast week, Statistics Canada released information on investment in construction (for June 2020) and building permit activity (for July 2020). While non-residential construction in June exceeds pre-COVID levels and is actually running ahead of June 2019, there is no corresponding recovery...
Q2 2020 GDP Released by Stats Can - and as Expected, It's Not Good News
Aug 28, 2020 | Economic News and ForecastsStatstics Canada reported on Canadian Q2 GDP today. The economy shrank by 11.5% compared to Q1 - an annualized decline of 38.7%. This is marginally better than predicted in July (see below), but still "the steepest [decline] since quarterly data were first recorded in 1961"...
May 2020 GDP Grows; Stats Can Releases Flash Estimates for June and Q2
Jul 31, 2020 | Economic News and ForecastsStatistics Canada today released their May GDP figures, showing growth of 4.5% over April, with 17 of 20 industrial sectors posting increases. Non-residential construction was up 56.7%, as all three subsectors (industrial, commercial and institutional) recorded double-digit increases...
Bank of Canada Holds Interest Rates, Forecasts GDP Decline in 2020 of Almost 8%
Jul 15, 2020 | Economic News and ForecastsThe Bank of Canada today held interest rates steady at 0.25%, which it calls the effective lower bound. In its release announcing the rate, the Bank said "The Governing Council will hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed...
Government of Canada Releases Economic and Fiscal Snapshot
Jul 15, 2020 | Economic News and ForecastsThe Government of Canada (Department of Finance) last week released an economic and fiscal snapshot for Canada's economy in the wake of COVID-19. They are forecasting a contraction in GDP for 2020 of 6.8% followed by growth of 5.5% in 2021. This is generally within the ranges...